Ambassador Jehangir Karamat’s Address at

The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC

(December 15, 2004)

The Pakistan-US Relationship: Next Steps

It’s a great pleasure to be back at Brookings. I must thank Strobe for that very generous introduction. We go back a long way to the days of a difficult phase in US-Pakistan relations---so vividly recalled in his book ‘Engaging India’. I must also thank Steve Cohen for inviting me to speak to such a great audience—over the years Steve has been a friend and mentor. And thank you all for coming.

Ever since I have been here I have been struck by the enormous interest in Pakistan. Almost exclusively in Pakistan’s past. I am asked to explain events and answer questions on what Pakistan did or did not do at a particular time in its fifty seven year history. Maybe this is because everyone is clear about what is happening in Pakistan today and where it is headed or maybe the idea is to never let Pakistan off the hook by constantly dredging up the past.

So I am going to bore you by not rehearsing history and by focusing only on the present and the future.

Pakistan is suffering the consequences of changing strategic directions. From a policy of active interference and destabilization of Afghanistan Pakistan is working with the US for a stable and friendly Afghanistan. From a policy of hostility and confrontation with India Pakistan now has a policy of dialogue and conflict resolution. From a policy of appeasement and political expediency with extremist religious elements Pakistan has moved to confronting them to end their negative influence and activities. From a clandestine nuclear program with proliferation consequences Pakistan has moved to a regime of command, control and international cooperation. From vendetta oriented political leaderships and dictatorial regimes Pakistan is moving slowly and surely towards sustainable democracy and political stability. From a military centric concept of security Pakistan has realized the importance of a broader concept of security with the emphasis on economic and internal stability.

This is a major strategic reorientation of the country. And, as in all such strategic turnarounds, there is a price to be paid. This price is paid in terms of the blow back, the resistance and the retaliation to the changes. There are those who seek to raise this price by exploiting vulnerabilities—overtly and covertly, directly and indirectly—in the hope that there will be failure. Yet these happenings in Pakistan are not discussed and debated. Maybe because no one believes that all this is actually taking place or maybe because there is the perception that this is all eye wash and actually it is business as usual.

Let me make out a case that this is for real, that it is irreversible and that the majority of Pakistanis consider these changes to be in the country’s interest.

On the western, north western and south western border with Afghanistan Pakistan has worked to put in place a Border Security Force capable of undertaking operations to hunt aliens and terrorists. This is an ongoing operation and is supported by intelligence and surveillance measures and rapid reaction heli-borne forces. The longer term measures to stabilize and pacify include infrastructure development and local tribal cooperation. This is being done with US support and at enormous cost in lives and resources. There has been considerable success and established networks operating in sanctuaries have been destroyed—the remnants are on the run. Pakistan is actively participating in the rebuilding of Afghanistan by investing resources, training personnel, trading and coordinating intelligence. No one has any doubt that a stable and friendly Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interest. There are elements who are acting to create problems but these are minor hiccups in the overall strategic thrust. This is the first time that all this has happened and US presence is a strong motivator. In my view there is no going back from this progression.

On the eastern border with India the Pakistan proposed cease fire along the Line of Control has held for over a year. A composite dialogue is in progress with the direction and tone set by summit level meetings and backed by discreet bilateral Track One talks. In spite of difficulties and some provocative activities the potential for ending conflict and confrontation is clearly discernible. Peace lobbies are developing and gaining influence among the people. The political capital that the US accumulates through separate and bilateral relations with India and Pakistan gives it the influence to keep the situation stable and progressive. Pakistan and India never went so far down the peace road before and never before did a Pakistani leader show the kind of flexibility and resolve as is being shown now. I would not call the situation irreversible but I would say that a move back to square one would be classified as a very great folly and not in the interest of either country. Pakistan, with its support for a UN presence, its acceptance of US facilitation and its readiness to implement restraint and confidence building measures is unlikely to do anything to undermine the peace process.

Internally Pakistan sees the blurring of the external and internal threat with the emphasis shifting to internal cohesion and stability. The economy has been turned around through structural reforms made possible by strong US support. Over a four year period reserves are up to $ 12 billion from 1 billion, GDP growth has averaged over 5.5% and targeted at 7-8% over the next three years. Exports are growing at 13% and fiscal deficit is less than 4%. Defence expenditure has decreased not only as a percentage of the total expenditure—6% to 3.4% but in absolute terms also. Large scale manufacturing is up 18% and the private sector is growing—87% of the banking sector is in private hands. 12.5 billion dollar bilateral loans from the Paris Club have been rescheduled freeing resources for social and infrastructure projects. The USAID office has been revised and US assistance is flowing at an average of 500-700 million annually. For 2005-2009 an economic package of $3 billion has been agreed for economic and defence regimes besides half of the US debt written off. US support for our reform agenda gives Pakistan access to an average 650 million dollars from the World Bank’s IDA. A Joint US-Pakistan Economic Forum has been established. Exim Bank and OPIC are giving guarantees to the private sector---the Boeing purchase came from this arrangement.

The political situation created by the last general elections is resolving as Pakistan moves towards the next elections in 2007. The local government system is going through teething problems as it harmonizes with the provincial governments and the bureaucracy. It is generally accepted that strong unambiguous central authority must oversee this transitional phase. Total media freedom is giving this entire process considerable input. This move towards sustainable democracy has to be a Pakistani phenomenon tailored to suit our environment and circumstances.

Extremist forces are being confronted in urban areas through painstaking intelligence operations, investigations and arrests. The track record so far is extremely good. This is an ongoing process. Its other facet is investment in education and human resource development. A five year Madressah reform program is also being implemented and is in its second year. Militant organizations have been banned and their accounts seized. Financial controls have been evolved. Governance is being emphasized to orchestrate these efforts and institutionalize them.

The nuclear proliferation episode has led to strong custodial measures. National regulatory and command authorities are in place with clear chains of command. Compartmentation and separated storage has increased security. Human, technical and surveillance measures are in place for security. Personnel reliability programs have been implemented. There is fool proof accounting and audit arrangements. Legislation has brought in export controls. We have, of course, received much support in this effort. There is total cooperation and the emphasis of investigations is now on the international network that made proliferation possible.

Pakistan’s vision of enlightened moderation is sparking interest. It is supportive of conflict resolution in the Middle East and is active and influential in the Islamic World and the Forum for the Future. Pakistan is seeking broader linkages as it connects with the globalised world.

Finally and briefly what are the next steps that we want in our relationship with the US. First and foremost we seek sustained and enhanced engagement so that gains continue to be consolidated and pushed further. US support must continue to give us access to international financial institutions. The conventional defence capability must continue to be built up because an unacceptable tilt in the balance of power makes meaningful India –Pakistan dialogue difficult. The Free Trade Agreement or alternative arrangements must give Pakistan’s trade with the US a boost and bilateral investment initiatives need to be implemented. These steps will influence public opinion and reduce poverty. US support for Pakistan’s counter terrorism effort must continue and capabilities must continue to be enhanced. We need to work with the US to change perceptions based on past happenings and create perceptions based on current policies and future projections. Pakistan will of course continue to address US concerns. The present cooperative and unambiguous relationship will help to do this as everything is on the table.

I will stop here because the idea was to give you an overview and not the details. The US- Pakistan relationship has always had a strategic dimension. It is strategic now and I have no doubt that as Pakistan progresses on its chosen directions the US will find that its ally is long term asset.